Category Archives: European theater

KGS Nightwatch Report on Growing Iranian Military Provocations

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This note comes from KGS in a recent edition of their excellent Nightwatch report:

Iran-Egypt-US: A US Defense Department spokesman said the US has no indications that the Iranian naval ships which transited the Suez Canal with Egyptian permission ever reached a Syrian port this past weekend. Two Iranian frigates with a support ship supposedly transited the Suez Canal en route the Syrian port of Tartus, to join Russian ships there. Iranian media bragged about the out of area deployment.   Comment: The Iranian media claim the ships reached the Syrian port of Tartus, but the US says they did not. Neither side apparently is willing to divulge to open source news services the present location of the ships.   The US spokesman said there was nothing particularly noteworthy about the latest deployment of the warships. That statement is not accurate because the Iranians showed they are prepared to use military power, such as it is, in support of their allies. That is not a trivial demonstration of intent.   The navy’s execution seems to have fallen short, but the leadership’s intention is clear, which is backed up by the decision to cut crude exports to France and the UK. Iranian threats look serious, never mind that they also are potentially suicidal.   Iran is struggling to protect its interests simultaneously on two fronts – in Syria and against the international community. Iran seems comfortable confronting the international community, but is struggling to support effectively its proxy in Damascus.   The attempted deployment of naval ships to Syria measures the importance Iran attaches to the survival of the al Asad government. Cutting oil to the UK and France, by comparison, appears to have been a much less burdensome executive decision. Syria represents Iran’s greatest strategic vulnerability. The banking sanctions on dollar-delimited transactions are a close second and the oil export embargo is a distant third.   Iran-Europe: Iranian National Oil Company head Ahmad Qalehbani said on 20 February that Iran could cut crude exports to other European Union nations, in addition to France and the United Kingdom, if the member states continue to take hostile action against Iran.      Comment: Iran is playing hard ball. A cut in Iranian oil exports to Greece, for example, would undermine the austerity measures enacted by the Greek government as a condition for the European bailout. Greece could become insolvent even with the European bailout.

The report goes on to highlight China’s tepid support of sanctions. China and Russia can both be counted on, in my humble opinion, to side with the Iranian allied communist and Islamist countries if a larger war breaks out. These allies include Syria, Venezuela, Bolivia, Zimabawe, North Korea and other states which are Chinese and Russian clients. Many African communist countries were the beneficiaries of Chines and Cuban “advisers” in the 70s so I expect Chavez is willing to do take up that cause. Reports of Venezuelan allied FARC fighters aiding the regime in Libya bolster that opinion.

A war in Iran, which is inevitable, could drag the entire world into a world war.

London Based Oil Executive Linked to 9/11 Hijackers

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From The Telegraph:

Abdulaziz al-Hijji and his wife Anoud left three cars at their luxurious home in a gated community in Sarasota, Florida — one of them new — and flew to Saudi Arabia in August 2001. The refrigerator was full of food; furniture and clothing were left behind; and the swimming pool water was still circulating.

Security records of cars passing through a checkpoint at the Prestancia gated community indicated that Mr al-Hijji’s home, 4224 Escondito Circle, had been visited a number of times by Mohamed Atta, the leader of the

19-strong hijack team, who piloted American Airlines Flight 11 into the North Tower of the World Trade Centre in 2001.

The logs also indicated that Marwan Al-Shehhi, who crashed United Airlines Flight 175 into the South Tower, and Ziad Jarrah, who was at the controls of United Airlines Flight 93 when it crashed in a field in Pennsylvania, had visited the house.

All three men had trained to fly at Venice Airport, which is 19 miles from Sarasota.

[...]

In email correspondence with the Telegraph, Mr al-Hijji strongly denied any involvement in the plot, writing: “I have neither relation nor association with any of those bad people/criminals and the awful crime they did. 9/11 is a crime against the USA and all humankind and I’m very saddened and oppressed by these false allegations.

“I love the USA. My kids were born there, I went to college and university there, I spent a good portion of my life there and I love it.”

Mr al-Hijji’s account is supported by the FBI, which has stated: “At no time did the FBI develop evidence that connected the family members to any of the 9/11 hijackers … and there was no connection found to the 9/11 plot.’’

Bob Graham, a former US senator who, in addition to co-chairing the congressional inquiry into 9/11, was chairman of the US senate intelligence committee at the time, disputes the FBI denials. He has long believed that there was Saudi support for the 19 terrorists, 15 of whom were subjects of the kingdom. He cites two secret documents to which he has recently had access.

The first document, Graham says, is “not consistent with the public statements of the FBI that there was no connection between the 9/11 hijackers and the Saudis at the Sarasota home. Both documents indicate that the investigation was not the robust inquiry claimed by the FBI.”

It should be remembered that much of the FBI malfeasance in the 90s regarding terror investigations was due to the influence of Jamie Gorelick, who went on to help destroy our economy in Fannie Mae. I’m not a fan of Wikipedia but here’s a decent summary of her less than stellar career.

Since Al-Qaeda has been shown to work with Iranian operatives and Iran is now angry at England the Brits may want to keep an eye on al-hijji

Portugal Trading in Default Territory as Europe Plunges into Financial Chaos

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This looks bad for Europe – which is temporarily good for America. Portugal’s troubles comes on the heels of news that Fitch expects Greece to default on it’s debts though in an “orderly” manner which will hit our banks hard. We also got some financial sabre rattling from German where an influential parliament member claimed that America was waging a war against the Euro through the ratings agencies.

Money from Europe is flooding into our markets, but this bounce will not last once Europe starts to collapse and our banks start shutting down. From the Financial Times:

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Portugal is trading in default territory after investors offloaded the country’s bonds this week amid rising fears of contagion, hurting a government debt auction on Wednesday. Worries are mounting that the private sector and Greece will fail to agree a restructuring package for Athens’ debt.

Portuguese 10-year bond yields, which have an inverse relationship with prices, jumped to a new euro-era high of 14.40 per cent in London on Wednesday. Before the S&P two-notch downgrade late on Friday, yields were trading at 12.45 per cent.

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Portugal on Wednesday sold €1.25bn of 11-month bills, €754m of six-month notes and €496m of three-month notes, lower than the €2bn to €2.5bn targeted by the government debt agency.

Portugal does not have a bond maturing until June, when €10bn is due for repayment. Its borrowing needs are also modest at €17.5bn. However, investors worry about Portugal’s painfully slow growth, which could impact on its ability to service its debts.

Many investors were forced to sell Portuguese bonds after Standard & Poor’s downgraded the country to junk on Friday. Other funds sold Portuguese debt after Lisbon was removed from Citigroup’s European Bond Index, which these investors track, because of its fall to junk status.

All three main credit rating agencies, S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch, rate Portugal as junk, below investment grade.

Meaning they’ll need a bailout and what a surprise the IMF is looking for another $600 Billion dollars.

Germany Halts H&K Exports to Mexico

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Canadian Business reported that the German government is stopping gun makers Heckler and Koch from exporting arms to Mexico:

BERLIN (AP) – Germany’s government has banned weapons manufacturer Heckler & Koch GmbH from any new arms deliveries to Mexico amid concerns they are ending in parts of the country where Berlin has forbidden weapons exports over human rights issues, according to a letter obtained Thursday by The Associated Press.

The letter from the Economy Ministry to the arms manufacturer, dated Jan. 4, says the company’s applications for exports of “weapons and other defense goods” to Mexico are suspended pending the outcome of judicial investigations in Germany.

Heckler & Koch is under investigation by prosecutors for allegedly providing its G36 assault rifle to Mexican police in the states of Chiapas, Chihuahua, Guerrero and Jalisco, where Germany prohibits such exports over alleged human rights violations.

The company, whose headquarters near Stuttgart were searched by prosecutors late last month, denies any wrongdoing.

Rights groups like Amnesty International have accused Mexican government troops and police of abuses in the ongoing fight against drug traffickers. Germany’s tight weapons export regulations allows arms deliveries to Mexico, outside of the four states where the human rights situation is in question.

H&K however says that Germany is mistaken:

Heckler & Koch maintains it did not deliver weapons to those four states, but only to the country’s Mexico City-based central weapons purchasing authority, which is overseen by the Defense Ministry.

“Heckler & Koch has at no point in time delivered to any Mexican states,” the company said in a statement late December.

The Firearms Blog explains this difference of opinion this way:

It sounds to me that the German government suspects that H&K knew where their weapons were headed and were knowingly selling them to a straw buyer. I believe it is the Mexican Army who runs the Mexico City gun distribution center. It seems crazy that they are allowed to export to Mexico, to a central distributor, but that only certain state police can receive them, and others cannot.

I’d add that it sounds to me like the Left party, who initiated the investigation, wants to keep Mexican forces outgunned by the FARC aligned cartels. FARC is a Chevez vassal and the Left party, who just called for the introduction of Soviet style communism in Germany, is supportive of the Chavez goal of toppling pro-Western Latin American government and spreading his communist movement northward. So extreme is the Left Party that the Christian Social Democrats have called for them to be outlawed.